At Aeon, Nevin Climenhaga makes some interesting points about probability. After describing different interpretations of probability, one involving the frequency with which an event will occur, another involving its propensity to occur, and a third involving our confidence it will occur, he describes how, given a set of identical facts, each of these interpretations can lead to different numbers for the probability. He also describes how each interpretation has its problems.

He then proposes what he calls the “degree of support” interpretation. This recognizes that probabilities are relative to the information we consider. That is, when we express a probability of X, we are expressing that probability in relation to some set of data. If we take away or add new data, the probability will change.

This largely matches my own intuition of probability, that it is always (or almost always) relative to a certain perspective, to a particular…

View original post 538 more words